April 17, 2024

A version of this article was originally published here.

In any new and developing space, there is bound to be a lot of noise. New solutions both compete for a new market against existing monopolies — which currently own the market, and against other technologies trying to displace them.

Hard To Understand

This is especially true in those breakthrough innovations/discoveries that change our world and force us to use a new lens to understand it. Prior biases make us less likely to investigate the new innovations on a first principles basis. Data is a legacy of our existing models — not these new ones. New ones need to be intuited to predict what will happen instead of forecasted using historical data. We simplify the models in our brains to save time and as a result, most people fall into the trap of predicting their future behavior by looking back at their past.

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